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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 22

Indianapolis Colts 18 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 4-A.Vinatieri 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model