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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 69

Detroit Lions 28 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 6-S.Martin punts 63 yards to IND 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model