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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 9-J.Ryan punts 48 yards to MIA 11, Center-48-N.Frese. 14-J.Landry to MIA 27 for 16 yards (40-T.Powell; 86-B.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.79 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model