Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(4:30) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model