Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

(3:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to MIA 33, Center-48-N.Frese. 19-J.Grant to MIA 38 for 5 yards (91-C.Marsh; 57-M.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.62 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model