Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(12:56) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to SEA 6, Center-92-J.Denney. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 19 for 13 yards (48-M.Gray; 45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.82 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model