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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 49 for 22 yards (42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model