4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to SEA 33, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model