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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-C.Marsh), Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model