4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 9-J.Ryan punts 27 yards to MIA 14, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP