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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Shotgun) 32-C.Michael up the middle to SEA 41 for 7 yards (47-K.Alonso).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model