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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to MIA 32, Center-48-N.Frese. 19-J.Grant to MIA 39 for 7 yards (91-C.Marsh). PENALTY on MIA, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 39.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.37 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP