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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 16 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(7:41) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model