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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to DAL 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 25 for 7 yards (29-N.Berhe).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model