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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 16 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(14:04) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model