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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Run formation) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +4.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +1.16 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model