Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

(9:11) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.34 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model