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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to NO 26, Center-59-J.Condo. 23-M.Murphy to NO 32 for 6 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.19 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP