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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 85

New Orleans Saints 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LV 34, Center-47-J.Drescher. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at NO 40 for 26 yards (36-D.Lasco). PENALTY on LV-41-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 40. INJURY UPDATE - NO #40 D.Breaux, leg, PROBABLE.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model