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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 38

Washington Commanders 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-C.Thompson to PIT 33 for 5 yards (21-R.Golden).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model