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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (No Huddle) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 17-E.Rogers to WAS 15 for 19 yards (26-B.Breeland).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.59 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model