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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.27 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP