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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 40

Washington Commanders 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to PIT 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.70 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP