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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to WAS 33, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.46 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP