Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to KC 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill to KC 32 for 19 yards (97-J.Attaochu; 57-J.Brown). PENALTY on KC-80-J.O'Shaughnessy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.22 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP

KICK -1.41 EP

28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
72% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model