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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 23 for 14 yards (58-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.26 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP