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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to ATL 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model