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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to LV 6, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP