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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 35 – Las Vegas Raiders 28

What Actually Happened

(:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.11 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -0.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model