Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 7-M.King punts 64 yards to ATL 7, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-E.Weems to ATL 8 for 1 yard (41-B.Trawick; 56-D.Bates). PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 7.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.79 EP
47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model