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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to ATL 9, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-57-C.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model