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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 7

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP