Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 88

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(10:26) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 37 for 4 yards (46-C.Harris; 33-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model