Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CIN 11, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 18 for 7 yards (54-L.Fort). Penalty on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. Penalty on CIN-86-J.Wright, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on CIN-53-M.Flowers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model