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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 96

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.38 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model