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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model