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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to PIT 32 for 5 yards (50-R.Shazier).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.44 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model