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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 16 for 6 yards (53-M.Flowers, 86-J.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model