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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP