Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

(3:12) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CIN 13, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 25 for 12 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 21-R.Golden).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.02 EP
58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model