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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 49

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP