Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(5:39) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 34 for 14 yards (26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.05 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model