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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 80

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to DAL 37, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at DAL 44 for 7 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model