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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 18

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(:31) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.34 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP