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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 11

Washington Commanders 17 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model