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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to WAS 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-31-B.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP