4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-J.Hankins), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Jenkins at NYG 35. 20-J.Jenkins for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model