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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 35

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.06 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP