Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(11:16) 9-B.Wing punts 63 yards to NO 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 32 for 21 yards (91-K.Sheppard).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.73 EP
48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model