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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 10 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model